Tomatoes, Fresh Leaf Vegetables Lead Monthly Inflation Surge in Uganda

Monthly headline inflation for February 2025 surged by 0.6%, more than doubling the 0.3% recorded in January 2025.

The cost of living in Uganda has experienced a notable rise, with tomatoes and fresh leaf vegetables emerging as the primary contributors to monthly inflation, according to the latest data from the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS).

Monthly headline inflation for February 2025 surged by 0.6%, more than doubling the 0.3% recorded in January 2025.

UBOS data, released on February 28, 2025, revealed a significant spike in the prices of tomatoes, which jumped from 4.7% in January to 12.4% in February.

Similarly, the price of fresh leaf vegetables increased from 8.9% in January to 11.9% in February.

Other key contributors to the inflationary pressures included fresh cassava, which saw prices rise from 2.5% in January to 4.1% in February, and dry beans, which climbed from 0.4% in January to 2.8% in February.

Fish prices also remained high, with fresh tilapia increasing from 9.6% in January to 15.7% in February.

In actual market prices, a kilogramme of tomatoes that cost Shs2,576 in January is now selling for Shs2,813.

Green pepper prices have seen a substantial increase, from Shs2,267 per kilogram in January to Shs3,261 in February. Fresh tilapia, previously priced at Shs16,098 per kilogramme, now costs Shs17,231.

Explaining the price hikes, Samuel Echoku, a microeconomic statistician at UBOS, attributed the fluctuations to market dynamics.

“All is determined by demand and supply, and most of these products are seasonal,” he said.

Seasonal shortages, especially during the dry season when production tends to slow, have contributed to the rising prices of perishables.

Traders and farmers have reported reduced harvests due to unfavorable weather conditions, further exacerbating the strain on supply.

In addition to the monthly price surges, annual headline inflation for the year ending February 2025 slightly increased to 3.7% from 3.6% in January 2025.

However, annual core inflation, which excludes volatile food prices, slowed from 4.2% in January to 3.9% in February.

“The headline inflation includes both perishables and non-perishables, while core inflation focuses on items less affected by weather changes,” Echoku explained.

“Even in drawing policy, core inflation is considered since it does not change as quickly as headline inflation.”

Despite the ongoing inflationary pressures, UBOS data revealed slight decreases in passenger transport costs by road and education services.

However, price increases were reported for rice, maize flour, sugar, matooke, fresh cassava, tomatoes, beans, and green pepper. Firewood prices, however, have declined.

The consistent rise in food prices has raised concerns, especially for low-income households, as essential commodities become increasingly unaffordable.

Economists predict that unless agricultural production stabilizes, food inflation could remain a persistent challenge in the coming months.

According to UBOS, policymakers and industry stakeholders will continue to monitor these trends to assess their economic impact and consider interventions to stabilize prices.

Meanwhile, consumers are encouraged to explore alternative food options and adopt cost-saving measures in response to the rising costs of staple foods.