Brown Sugar Prices Spike as Global Weather Shocks Disrupt Supply

The price of brown sugar has soared across Uganda, with consumers and traders alike feeling the pinch of global supply disruptions and erratic weather that has battered production in leading sugar-exporting nations.

A kilogram of brown sugar now sells for between Shs5,500 and Shs6,500 in Kampala and other major towns—up from Shs4,000 barely two months ago.

The surge is largely attributed to reduced sugarcane yields in Brazil and India, the world’s top producers, where unpredictable rainfall and prolonged droughts have strained harvests.

“We are struggling to get enough stock, and what is available is more expensive,” said Richard Mbabazi, a sugar wholesaler in downtown Kampala.

“Our usual supply timelines have become inconsistent, and that’s pushing up prices.”

Uganda’s brown sugar market relies partly on imports to stabilise supply, and the current scarcity has exposed the vulnerability of that dependence.

Distributors note that logistical bottlenecks, rising freight costs, and tighter export policies from major producers have all contributed to the supply squeeze.

Brown sugar, often preferred by households and bakeries for its richer flavour and perceived health benefits over refined crystal sugar, is now becoming a luxury in some communities.

Bakers are warning that the cost of bread, pastries, and sweetened beverages could rise unless prices stabilise soon.

“I’ve already adjusted my pricing slightly,” said Annet Namutebi, who runs a small bakery in Mukono. “If the prices keep climbing, we’ll be forced to cut portions or increase costs further—and that affects customers.”

The sugar industry has been hit hard globally, with Brazil’s Centre-South region—the world’s largest sugarcane belt—experiencing below-average rainfall, while parts of India have seen unseasonably dry conditions that reduced yields.

Meanwhile, energy costs and fertiliser prices, already elevated by lingering effects of the global inflation wave, have further complicated production and transportation.

In Uganda, there are calls for the government to support local producers and incentivise greater sugarcane farming to reduce reliance on imports.

Some economists argue that bolstering regional trade within East Africa could offer short-term relief while insulating the country against future external shocks.

But for now, consumers are bracing for more expensive cups of tea and higher prices at the bakery, as the brown sugar squeeze continues to ripple through the market.