Facing the inevitable: why Uganda, and all African states, must expire

I often see commentators say that Uganda will always be here. They indicate that in whatever we do, we should know that the country will out-exist all of us and will be present in future experiences in which we will not participate. This is logically untrue. Uganda will cease to exist.

As a matter of fact, we should be envisaging that time when everything that is strictly Ugandan will not make meaning – and we should be not only be thinking about it, but aligning our present strategic aspirations and actions to that. Uganda as a stand-alone state is strategically unviable in the long-run. And before any reader considers me unpatriotic, let me quickly notify you that neither is any other African state viable in the long run.

Consequently, all African countries should, and will, expire with time. We have the choice to manage the pending expiration, or to pretend that we do not envisage it and live like the proverbial ostrich, heads buried in sand. If we choose the latter, we shall have assigned to future generations the misfortune of forceful re-organization of their society, as a desperate measure for basic survival. On the other hand, if we embrace the reality that our countries must expire for strategic continuity, we might even bestow honor upon future generations.

Now, I will not fault those who see Uganda, or any other African country for that matter as jewels that must be polished to shine and illuminate earth with their glory. I can only make effort to disabuse you of your fantasies and wake you up from your deep slumber.

At the basic and ordinary level, it should be evident that no single African country can garner enough strength to influence anything at the global scene. And with this, I mean anything at all. Look, we cannot even prices of what we sell to the rest of the world. The buyers decide the prices to pay us, and we must comply. Nonetheless, let us take a look at a few other thorny concerns, related to the above.

We may commence with one aspect for which we may not directly blame anyone else. It is called climate change. It is an ongoing plague, which many a reader will have heard about. It does not hurt though to remind ourselves that it is predicted that by 2050, the continent’s agricultural productivity may be slashed by 20% by the climate change assault. And the populations are already starving, 25 years in advance. It costs money, lots of it, to combat climate change. We are not one of those rich jurisdictions that will invest in building resilience against change. We will predominantly wait to react to climate change events, and I promise you that comes costly. Even the reactionary costs are not within our means. We will wait for financial assistance.

You have possibly noticed already how advanced countries have been engaging one another in war these days. “Manyi ga kifuba” warfare does not cut it anymore. We are sitting ducks in case you have not noticed. There is nothing in our exploding population to protect ourselves with, if advanced nations chose to go rogue. Our growing numbers would be inconsequential in modern warfare. They can subdue the entire continent, in very comfortable timeframes on their side, without setting foot on our soil. That is even without imagining the extreme choice of nuclear extermination, if they wished it against us.

You will certainly have come to the realization that our homeland, Africa, is turning into a theater of competition for geopolitical influence. Let no pride invade your heart that at long last we are becoming more relevant to the rest of the world. We are simply more exposed to danger, and if you are in doubt imagine two dogs annoyed with each other, fighting over a captured live chicken for their meal.

And if all the above does not make sense to you, friend, you may now be informed of what is call resource-backed financing. Some African countries have started to engage in agreements where they pledge natural resources as collateral for loans or investments from foreign governments, multinational corporations, or financial institutions. And a number of African nations have more than 50% of their budgets funded by donors. If you do not see the danger to national sustainability in this state of affairs, you have wasted your time reading this article.

In view of all the above, and more that I have not written, take it from me that the African state is unviable and we must expire these countries and coalesce them into one unit. We may also pretend that we do not see this, and these countries will collapse into one in future when wiser Africans inhabit this place, and take logical decisions to ensure their survival in a toughening world.

And as such, fellow Ugandans, you may now consider the reality – our beloved Uganda must expire