Kamala Harris Carves Open Huge Polling Lead Over Donald Trump

Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump by her biggest margin yet, according to a new poll.

The poll, conducted by polling company Leger between July 26 and 28, shows that when third party candidates are included, Harris leads Trump by 7 points, with the presumptive Democratic nominee on 48 percent compared to the former president's 41 percent.

Meanwhile, only 5 percent of likely voters polled said they would vote for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Third party voters have shifted towards the two main political parties since Leger's last poll in June, with the Democrats gaining 4 points and the Republicans gaining 3 points.

The number of voters who would support another candidate in the race other than Trump and Harris has also decreased since Leger's last poll, with only 5 percent saying they would, compared to 12 percent in June, when Joe Biden was still on the ticket.

In a head to head matchup, Harris retained her lead over Trump, winning 49 percent of likely voters to Trump's 46 percent. That represents a 4-point increase in the Democrat's lead over Trump since Leger's June poll.

Vice President Kamala Harris speaking at the opening day of the Sixtieth Biennial Boule in Houston, Texas on July 31, 2024. According to a new poll, Harris is leading former President Donald Trump by her...

The July poll surveyed 1,002 adults over the age of 18 and had a margin of error of +/-3.1 percent.

Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.

Recent polls have put Trump and Harris close to neck and neck with each other. In a New York Times/Siena College poll published last week, Trump lead Harris by 1 point in a head to head matchup—narrowing the race to a virtual tie after Trump led Biden by six points in a Times/Siena poll in June.

But when third party candidates were included, Harris' lead increased, drawing 44 percent of likely voters to Trump's 43 percent.

Meanwhile, aggregate polls from The New York Times, The Hill, and RealClearPolitics show Trump leading Harris by between 1 and 2 points. However, they also show Trump leading Harris at a smaller margin than her predecessor Biden prior to his exit.

According to election analyst and statistician Nate Silver, while Harris is more likely to win the popular vote, Trump has a greater chance of winning the Electoral College.

His model shows that Trump has a 61.3 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, while Harris' chances stand at 38.1 percent. In the popular vote, Harris a 53.5 percent chance of winning, while Trump has a 46.5 percent chance.

"The model starts by creating a 'snapshot' of the current state of the race based on state and national polls. Although state polls are ultimately more important in the model's logic, they've been less plentiful than national polls since Biden dropped out," Silver explained on his website.

Silver gained notoriety after correctly predicting 49 of 50 states in the 2008 presidential election