Somali President Responds to Gen Muhoozi on UPDF Deployment: “Thank you, and Bye, Bye”

Gen Muhoozi meeting Somali President Hassan in the past

Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has said Somalia could now take charge of its own security and should bid farewell to Ugandan troops, signalling a potential shift in one of the Horn of Africa’s most critical security partnerships.

“We should tell the Ugandans ‘thank you’, and ma’asalaam (bye, bye).’”

The remarks, delivered during Somalia’s Army Day this past Sunday, came a day after Muhoozi Kainerugaba threatened to withdraw troops and cut diplomatic ties with Turkey within 30 days, citing tensions over roles and recognition in Somalia.

Uganda’s Backbone Role

Uganda, through the Uganda People’s Defence Force and the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia, has been central to Somalia’s stabilisation for over a decade.

Its troops have led frontline combat against Al-Shabaab, secured Mogadishu, and protected strategic assets including the airport, seaport and diplomatic zones.

Security analyst Rashid Abdi said Uganda’s presence remains indispensable despite Mogadishu’s assertive tone.

“One must however be careful against reading too much into rhetoric by all sides,” Abdi said.

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“Reality is that Mogadishu and Somalia cannot survive without UPDF military assistance.”

Uganda has more than 12,000 troops deployed in Somalia, including over 8,000 under bilateral arrangements and about 4,500 under ATMIS, making it the largest foreign military contingent.

Abdi warned that a sudden withdrawal would likely destabilise the capital.

“A sudden exit will almost inevitably collapse security in and around Mogadishu.”

Ugandan forces guard key installations, including Mogadishu’s airport and port, which host a growing number of diplomatic missions.

Abdi said those missions could reconsider their presence if Ugandan troops withdrew, citing persistent concerns about infiltration of Somali security institutions by militants.

Ugandan troops have also expanded operations beyond Mogadishu, pushing militants out of strategic towns along the Shabelle River in recent months, in what analysts describe as complex and costly operations.

Turkey’s Role

Turkey has expanded its footprint in Somalia through military training, infrastructure investment and control of key economic assets such as the port and airport.

Turkish firms dominate many of the commercial opportunities linked to Somalia’s reconstruction, reinforcing Ankara’s position as a leading partner.

However, Abdi said tensions may have been sharpened by battlefield dynamics.

“Ugandan troops did the heavy lifting,” he said of recent operations, noting Turkish forces provided aerial support but did not deploy ground troops.

Ugandan officials have also expressed frustration over what they see as disproportionate recognition of Turkish and other non-African actors, while African troop contributions are downplayed.

Strain on the Ground

Ugandan forces are currently holding territory and manning forward operating bases to prevent Al-Shabaab from regrouping, roles that go beyond their original mandate of supporting Somali forces.

Expected reinforcements from other partners, including Egypt, have yet to fully materialise, while Burundian troops previously deployed in Somalia have withdrawn.

Abdi said this has left Uganda carrying a heavier operational burden than initially planned.