Political aspirations shattered

Political pilgrims seeking to enter the Promised Land of elected office have been left wandering in the desolate desert of uncertainty after their guide returned to base.
For some of his followers in the Patriotic League of Uganda (PLU), the declaration by Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba, who is also the Chief of Defence Forces, that he will not run in the 2026 election but instead back his father, President Museveni’s re-election bid, was a sudden sandstorm. 
“I have never seen a mourning week in PLU like this one,” Mr Frank Gashumba, the outfit’s vice chairman in the central region, said on Monday. “I tell you we are in tears.”
He confessed that he and other members of PLU had not been briefed before the announcement made last Friday on the micro-blogging platform, X.
READ: Should Ugandans start preparing for life after Mr Museveni?
With many political office seekers looking to ride on Gen Kainerugaba’s coattails into or back into Parliament, the announcement will force recalibrations with just 18 months left to the General Election.
For some who are already in the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) party, Gen Kainerugaba’s olive branch, offered in a subsequent post, to join the NRM, is perhaps an obvious choice. That appeared to be the case with Mr David Kabanda, the NRM MP for Kasambya County who is also the PLU secretary general.
“I have heard those who said they aren’t going to support the NRM. They shouldn’t be selfish,” Mr Kabanda said. “What if it was President Museveni who said he wouldn’t stand in 2026 and wouldn’t support us? Could Gen Muhoozi win without President Museveni’s support? We should accept what our leader has said.”
READ: What kind of transition will lead to Museveni’s exit?
Mr Kabanda likened PLU to a school that is registered to teach but is not licensed to conduct examinations. He said: “All people, students and parents, were aware that the school has no centre number. Students had to register from other schools to sit for national examinations. When the headmaster tells you that the students will not sit for the examination at the school, why get shocked? PLU isn’t a political party; it is a civic organisation.”
READ: Museveni links Muhoozi rise to NRM weaknesses
Others, especially those elected to Parliament on Opposition party tickets, face the heat of sweltering competition as they seek political shelter in the coming electoral contest. That is the case for Dr Twaha Kagabo, the Bukoto South MP who was elected to Parliament in 2021 under the umbrella of the National Unity Platform (NUP), which had just been formed under the leadership of Robert ‘Bobi Wine’ Kyagulanyi, a musician-turned-politician and bitter Gen Kainerugaba rival.
“I have been in transition,” Dr Kagabo said. “Next season, I will sign for NRM.”
READ: I'm tired of waiting, I'll stand for presidency in 2026 - Muhoozi
Calls seeking comment from Mr Jimmy Lwanga, the NUP MP representing Njeru Municipality constituency but who has also been flirting with PLU, have gone unanswered since Sunday.
Controversy
After the 2021 General Election, Gen Kainerugaba formed a pressure group, MK Movement, and began to openly hint at running for president – despite the law barring serving military officers from participating in partisan politics. The Movement was later rebranded to PLU, described as a civic organisation, and registered as a private company limited by guarantee although many expected it to later morph into a political party.
Gen Kainerugaba, then commander of the Land Forces, continued to hold his military position by day while making sometimes controversial posts on X by night. After one post about a possible military adventure against a neighbouring country, Gen Kainerugaba was relieved of his position but promoted to the rank of lieutenant general and appointed special presidential adviser.
READ: Museveni will be president in 2026, Muhoozi should wait- Tanga
Freed of the yoke of military office, he continued to popularise his PLU outfit causing discomfort within the Opposition and the ruling NRM party. One of the few regime officials to openly push back was Maj Gen Kahinda Otafiire, one of the few officers who fought with Museveni in the five-year guerrilla war that brought the NRA/M to power who continues to hold a senior position in the government, as Internal Affairs minister.
 Maj Gen Otafiire told NTV Uganda in December 2022. “Come 2026 I am campaigning for Gen Museveni to come back as our flag-bearer.”
In May 2023, President Museveni invited Gen Kainerugaba and his top political associates to a meeting at State House Entebbe. A statement from State House after the meeting said the President had urged them to abandon political messages and limit their comments on national unity, economic transformation, the gospel, and sports.
Two months later, officials in the Office of the NRM National Chairman led by Hadijah Namyalo launched a new campaign, Jjajja Tova Ku Main, during President Museveni’s 79th birthday celebrations urging him to stay in office. Namyalo became a mouthpiece of the group and publicly attacked Gen Kainerugaba and his group.
Nevertheless, at least three Cabinet ministers, 68 MPs from both sides of the House, and about 40 Local Council district chairpersons attended the official launch of the PLU in February 2024 and pledged allegiance to the outfit.
READ: Mixed signals as MK Movement unveils new group
The next month, however, Gen Kainerugaba was reappointed to the top military rank as Chief of Defence Forces, leaving his outfit effectively leaderless. Two of Gen Kainerugaba’s key allies – Mr Balaam Barugahare and Ms Lilian Aber – were appointed junior Cabinet ministers while two others – Mr Michael Mawanda and Ms Cissy Namujju, both NRM MPs representing Igara East and Lwengo Women, respectively – were remanded to Luzira Prison on unrelated corruption charges.
The two were subsequently released from jail on bail but are yet to carry out any of the mobilisation tours they undertook before their arrest. With Friday’s cyber sandstorm, it remains unclear if the tours will resume at all ahead of the election, or what awaits the new PLU recruits.
Ms Aber, the PLU national vice chairperson for the northern region, told the Daily Monitor that the declaration would change little since it has always been ‘the people’ begging the officer to stand.
“Gen Muhoozi was listening to our appeal to stand for President. It is us who were pushing him. We haven’t stopped our appeal to him. When the army retires him, we shall continue with the appeal,” Ms Aber said.
“All we want is when President Museveni thinks of a transition or passing the baton to someone else, our chairman is the best candidate. Until then, PLU recruits stranded in the desert will await a voice of guidance to guide them home," she added.