Uganda, Kenya Issue El Niño Alerts, Urge Early Preparedness for Heavy Rains

Uganda, Kenya Issue El Niño Alerts, Urge Early Preparedness for Heavy Rains

Meteorological authorities in Uganda and Kenya have issued early warnings over an expected El Niño event later this year, urging the public, government institutions and local authorities to begin contingency planning ahead of an enhanced rainfall forecast to start around September and potentially persist into early 2027.

In a weather advisory, the Permanent Secretary at Uganda’s Ministry of Water and Environment, Dr Alfred Okot Okidi, warned that developing El Niño conditions are expected to bring above-normal rainfall across much of the country during the September to December rainy season.

“The World Meteorological Organisation and global climate monitoring centres are indicating that there is an increased likelihood of the development of an El Niño event during the second half of 2026, with possible persistence into 2027,” the statement reads in part.

Although the climate phenomenon is still being closely monitored, Dr Okidi said preliminary seasonal forecasts already point to enhanced rainfall over most parts of Uganda. He added that the ministry continues to analyse global, regional and national climate conditions to track the evolution of the event.

“The ministry will continue to provide timely forecasts, advisory and early warning information to support preparedness and informed decision-making,” the statement added.

Kenya’s Meteorological Department has issued a similar advisory, calling on households, county governments and operators of critical infrastructure to prepare for possible flooding, transport disruptions and other weather-related emergencies.

According to the department, there is an 81 per cent probability that the developing 2026 El Niño will be very strong and a 97 per cent chance that it will persist into the first months of 2027.

The alerts from Uganda and Kenya follow a similar warning issued last week by the African Union. During an emergency ministerial meeting in Addis Ababa, the AU urged member states to strengthen early warning systems and disaster preparedness after forecasts indicated a 90 per cent likelihood of an El Niño event in 2026 capable of triggering extreme weather across the continent.

The climate phenomenon was first flagged in June this year by the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than average, disrupting global weather patterns. The phenomenon typically develops every two to seven years and often alters rainfall distribution across East Africa.

The region last experienced significant El Niño impacts during the 2023–2024 event, which triggered prolonged heavy rains, widespread flooding, landslides, displacement of communities and extensive damage to infrastructure and agriculture.

Southern Africa was also severely affected, with the Food and Agriculture Organisation reporting that more than 61 million people required humanitarian assistance following climate-related shocks associated with the event.

In Uganda, the Ministry of Water and Environment has urged government agencies, district authorities and communities to act before the rains begin. It has recommended the pre-positioning of emergency relief supplies, strengthening disaster response mechanisms, clearing drainage channels and flood pathways, intensifying public awareness campaigns, and developing contingency plans for climate-sensitive sectors including agriculture, health, transport, water resources and critical infrastructure.

In Kampala, signs of preparedness are already visible. The Kampala Capital City Authority (KCCA) has intensified desilting operations along major drainage channels to reduce the risk of urban flooding ahead of the anticipated rains.