Why Kawempe South is a competitive ground for 2026

While on the campaign trail ahead of the 2021 poll, Bashir Kazibwe—who would go on to become the Kawempe South lawmaker—was eager to be seen hobnobbing with Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, alias Bobi Wine, the National Unity Platform (NUP) principal. All this would change after Kazibwe joined the House.
While electioneering in the run-up to the 2021 vote, “I identify with the common person” became Kazibwe’s mantra. The former Uganda Journalists Association (UJA) president told all and sundry that “I was born and raised from a humble background.” The backstory of his parents separating while he was just seven and his father dying in a road accident shortly before he wrote his A-Level final papers resonated with many.
Yet, besides questioning the looming eviction of residents of the Katanga slum in Makerere early in his term as Kawempe South lawmaker, Kazibwe has maintained a conspicuous silence in the House. A bastion of Opposition parties since a multiparty dispensation took root in Uganda in 2006, Kawempe South is dotted with poverty-stricken slums such as Bwaise, Mulago, Katanga, and Angola.
“The party’s office is in Kawempe South, but we haven’t had an MP since 2021. The person who was voted for has never shown up at the party headquarters, so this is something as a party that we have not liked,” Alex Waiswa Mufumbiro, NUP's deputy spokesperson, who is said to be interested in replacing Kazibwe as the area lawmaker, told Saturday Monitor.
Kazibwe was not available for comment for this story. His fairytale win in 2021 came after he beat Roy Ssembogga to the NUP flag. This was despite Ssembogga once having been the secretary general of People Power, the pressure group that later morphed into NUP. An eloquent politician and community mobiliser, Ssembogga garnered a paltry 1,250 votes after standing as an independent candidate. Kazibwe, with 26,855 votes under his belt, emerged as the runaway winner. Solomon Mayanja of the National Resistance Movement (NRM) came second with 6,818 votes. Mubarak Munyagwa, the erstwhile incumbent, placed third with 3,788 votes. Nathan Guhungu of the Ecological Party, got 803 votes, almost twice what Richard Mutumba Sebuliba (464 votes) the wooden spoon holder mustered.
Addictive love
Sebuliba, 64, served on the Public Accounts Committee during the Ninth Parliament. He also served as the shadow minister for works and infrastructure development in 2011. His poor performance in the 2021 did not come as a surprise to some observers.
“We have a big number of young people and our politics seems to favour the young people,” Sabiti Makara, a former lecturer at Makerere University’s Department of Political Science, told Saturday Monitor, adding, “It’s very easy for them to tell a veteran politician that: ‘you had your time; this is our time.’”
Yet, barring any disaster of epic proportions, Sebuliba says he will be on the ballot, again, in 2026. Because Kawempe South is a predominantly Muslim constituency, the veteran politician—once upon a time a dyed-in-the-wool Democratic Party member—must not have read too much in his marginal defeat of NRM’s Twaha Najja during the 2011 vote. Sebuliba prevailed only just. By 244 votes. His defeat in 2016, suffered at the hands of the Forum for Democratic Change ( FDC)’s Munyagwa, was by 10,000 votes. Sebuliba attributed the defeat to a blue wave engineered by Dr Kizza Besigye. Munyagwa was emphatically elected to the House after he aligned his campaign with Besigye’s defiance message. A red wave engineered by Bobi Wine likewise carried Kazibwe to the political Mecca in 2021.
“I think now people have realised waves don’t work and they will vote for me this time,” Sebuliba said recently.
In trying to explain why perhaps Sebuliba is trying to make a comeback, Makara told Saturday Monitor that “politics is addictive. Some people can’t live without it. They are used to being in positions of influence with money.”
Up for grabs
There are overwhelming indications that Kazibwe is quite vulnerable heading into the 2026 poll. For instance, in 2022, Kazibwe who wanted to attend a meeting of vendors called by Kampala Lord Mayor Erias Lukwago was hounded out of the venue.
“You promised us as you were contesting to represent the people of Kawempe South. We are here to remind you after a year in Parliament we haven't seen any of those things. Particularly voters are in tears and are angry due to the high prices of commodities. We need your voice on the floor of Parliament," read the letter Kawempe South voters addressed to Kazibwe.
Kawempe South is bordered by Kampala Central, Rubaga North, Kawempe North and Nansana Municipality. NRM was last victorious in a parliamentary race there in 1996 when Meddie Ssozi Kaggwa carried the day. After upending Kaggwa at the ballot in 2001, Sebuliba served for three terms before Munyagwa pulled the rug from under his feet.
With Kazibwe falling out with his party and his constituents, the NUP top brass has been exploring its options. Sources say Mufumbiro's name has been fronted. This has, however, aroused a lot of emotions on online spaces. Mufumbiro, in his capacity as NUP’s deputy spokesperson, has been the party’s attack dog. Whilst NUP’s mouthpiece Joel Ssenyonyi is calmer, Mufumbiro's no-holds-barred approach has endeared him to the party’s loyalists. The consequences have, however, been double-edged, with Mufumbiro’s outspoken streak rubbing a number of figures in the Opposition the wrong way. 
Polarising figure
Recently, following a suggestion by Ibrahim Ssemujju Nganda, the Kira Municipality lawmaker, that NUP should have consulted other political parties when choosing the Leader of the Opposition in Parliament, Mufumbiro responded by alleging that his party is the only genuine Opposition.
“Those other parties are free to join the ruling regime, after all they have been making deals with the NRM. They should let the National Unity Platform perform its mandate and when we are doing that we shall not consult those other parties,” Mufumbiro said.
Mufumbiro has also ruffled feathers within NUP when he tried to downplay the health troubles of Muhammad Ssegirinya, the Kawempe North lawmaker. 
“He has been badmouthing leaders in Buganda and here he is trying to seek an elective position in Buganda,” a voter registered in Kawempe South said of Mufumbiro.
Mufumbiro’s entrance into the race will likely open ethnic undertones since this is an area in the Buganda yet he is a Musoga. During the 2021 poll, Mufumbiro contested in Jinja South West Constituency. In the race that was won by FDC’s Timothy Batuwa with 4,801 votes followed by NRM’s Moses Balyeku with 3,102 votes, Mufumbiro placed third after managing 1,964 votes under the NUP umbrella. 
Mufumbiro’s decision to now change constituencies has seen him being cast as a political nomad who is looking for a constituency where he can easily get into Parliament. He joins George Musisi, who first explored standing in Mukono Municipality before settling down for Kira Municipality.
For now, Mufumbiro denies that the decision has been made where he will stand.
“That question is too early,” he said, adding, “That’s a very difficult question now […] consultations are underway, but the only thing I can confirm to you is that I will stand for MP in 2026. Where I will stand I will be deployed by the party. As you realise I’m among the top leaders of the party, so for me, to declare personal intention is not under my oath.”
Mufumbiro aside, Munyagwa also proved non-committal about his 2026 plans, saying he would take a break from elective politics. After his defeat in 2021, he had indicated that the curtain had come down on his political career.
“I don’t want to waste my time with voters. I gave them my all and I think I need to give them time to taste other leaders and see,” Munyagwa said after he was defeated by Kazibwe. 
After tasting Kazibwe, a cross-section of voters in Kawempe South have been asking Munyagwa to stand again. Whether he will yield to their requests remains to be seen.
 ABOUT KAWEMPE SOUTH
It is bordered by Kampala Central, Rubaga North, Kawempe North and Nansana Municipality. NRM was last victorious in a parliamentary race there in 1996 when Meddie Ssozi Kaggwa carried the day.