Rubongoya MP Chances Increase As Mpuuga Camp-Backed Moses Katabu Steps Down for Him

The chances for NUP Secretary General and chief diplomat David Lewis Rubongoya (who has striking physical resemblance with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio) to become Kampala Central MP increased over the weekend following his internal party rival Lord Councilor Moses Katabu’s decision to step down in his favor.

Katabu had long ago declared desire to be the next Kampala Central MP on behalf of NUP and the entire opposition after Fred Nyanzi relocated to Kawempe South. Katabu is a veteran of the anti-Museveni struggle and had been in DP/UYD for an eternity and there was consensus among opposition forces in Kampala Central that the man from Sserwanga village along Rubaga Road was the best placed to take on whoever NRM will front.

However, SG Rubongoya suddenly emerged after it became clear in the Kyagulanyi orbit that he is someone Gen Museveni could easily tolerate taking the MP slot in Kampala Central which is home to key government installations namely the Nakasero State House, Judiciary headquarters, Parliament of Uganda and others.

Emboldened by Abed Bwanika and other Mathias Mpuuga DF adherents, Katabu had vowed to go down fighting as opposed to just abdicating the slot in Rubongoya’s favor. He had indicated readiness to even run as an independent in case NUP didn’t give him the thing. Bwanika and Moses Kasibante went as far as saying that Katabu was the one they would support and campaign for to ensure that Rubongoya (whom they called alien) doesn’t prevail. They argued he should go and stand in Ankole or his native Bunyoro and leave the political business of Kampala Central to Moses Katabu who is a Muganda.

But in an unexpected turn of events, Katabu over the weekend bowed out and made it clear this was in the broader opposition interest. This was expected because whereas Bwanika and Moses Kasibante chose the malevolent approach of demonizing him because of where he comes from, Rubongoya leveraged the carrot approach and diplomatically kept engaging Moses Katabu, making it clear it was better to find common ground than remaining antagonistic.

This is the approach the NUP SG always uses (diplomacy) to find common ground with his adversaries as opposed to being belligerent towards them. He is on so many WhatsApp forums and whenever anyone goes bare knuckles on him, Rubongoya comes inbox and reaches out calling for de-escalation.

He will reach out asking “what’s the problem comrade?” He rightly believes everything can be de-escalated and resolved through diplomatic engagement (and this must be one of the many great things he learnt at Harvard). This is how the powerful NUP SG makes peace with many of his former adversaries many of whom have since converted from being foes to allies.

So, those who know things prey well say it was a matter of time before a deal was reached with Katabu who will now go for Kampala Central Mayorship position against NRM’s Salim Uhuru who is the incumbent having narrowly beaten a NUP lightweight politician (Hidad Semugooma) in 2021. This had previously been allocated to veteran DP politician Charles Musoke Sserunjogi, a former rival of the Sentamu family in Kamwokya where he grew up with Fred Nyanzi, Eddie Yawe and others. Sserunjogi (who previously served as Central Mayor) will now run for Kampala Central Lord Councilor position with the hope of becoming KCCA Speaker once at City Hall.

It’s clear that Rubongoya, who is already working well with Erias Lukwago who pioneered NRM defeats there in 2006, realizes the need for a strong coalition to win in Kampala Central where the ruling NRM remains strongest and hardest to beat because of existence of many state institutions and obstacles like the Summit View barracks on Kololo Hill.

At Summit View, the NRM candidate will be assured of tens of thousands of votes (some of them ghosts) which can be enough to neutralize whatever the opposition candidate will have garnered from the Division’s ghettos which comprise what is called the lower Kampala parishes of Mengo (Katabu’s home ground) and the Kisenyis etc.

As Rubongoya rightly realizes that Kampala Central is complicated because more than 80% of the people (call them foot soldiers) who congest the CBD during day time only come to Kampala Central for work but they reside in Kawempe, Makindye, Wakiso, Kiteezi, Ssabagabo, Kiira, Gayaza, Nansana, Mukono, Entebbe, Nsangi, Kyengera, Nakasozi, Kajjansi, Kakiri, Kasangati, Nabweru, Matugga and other places where they are registered to vote from.

Save for lower Kampala parishes (which Musevenists can neutralize using votes from Summit View barracks where the opposition can’t access), a significant fraction of those residing in the Central Division are wealthy Musevenists sleeping in upper Nakasero, Kololo, Mawanda Road flats, Civic Center etc whose homes can’t be easily accessed by those canvassing for votes.

Many flats for instance on Buganda Road are inhabited by Indians, Pakistanis and other expatriates who don’t vote but even if they did, they have a higher propensity to favor the Musevenist status quo than flocking with the opposition. All these factors combine to explain why Rubongoya rightly realizes he has to (out of necessity) build (as opposed to burning) bridges resulting into a grand coalition if he is to overwhelm the rigging machine of the state.

It’s partly the reason why the pre-NUP Fred Nyanzi had had to capitulate from being DP to becoming a big man in NRM. His brother Eddie Yawe had enormous organic support in 2011, running on the DP ticket, but lost to Mohammed Nsereko who as of that time was a blue-eyed boy of powerful PPS Amelia Kyambadde and had full State House backing.

With Katabu gone, Rubongoya (who could end up becoming LoP and use that platform to build clout to go and stand in his native Bunyoro in 2031) will now have to concentrate on tackling Minsa Kabanda, a wealthy Minister in Museveni’s government. Years ago, she stood only to be drowned by Mohammed Nsereko who had more money than she had at that time. Minsa Kabanda has leveraged her Ministerial position to make tremendous sums of cash and campaign logistics won’t be her problem anymore.

And broadly speaking, NUP strategists at Kavule are increasingly becoming optimistic that this piloting phase in Rubongoya’s Kampala Central provides great referencing which can be replicated to inspire protagonists in other electoral areas to find common ground as opposed to tearing the people’s party apart while fighting for the ticket.

MORE ON NUP: In a related development, the growing alliance between Fred Nyanzi (the incoming Kawempe South MP) and Kawempe incumbent Mayor Emmanuel Sserunjogi has yielded some results. The Kawempe field has gotten deescalated a bit with foot soldier Umar Magala being convinced to bow out of the Mayoral race. He will be running for Lord Councilorship while backing Dr. Sserunjogi for Mayorship, which veteran politician Latif Sebaggala is also interested in on the NUP ticket.

In Makindye, Allan Ssewanyana’s Makindye West position, which KCCA Speaker Zahara Luyulika recently abandoned to go for Kampala Woman MP slot, has now been allocated to outgoing Makindye Mayor Kasirye Nganda Mulyanyama notwithstanding his inability to effectively communicate in the Queen’s language. Sources say that a decision has been taken to disregard Allan Ssewanyana who now Bobi Wine considers to be easily disposable because of the political fatigue that comes with being an incumbent.

He first became area MP in 2016 and has done 10 years without break. That comes with its own political vulnerabilities and Ssewanyana understandably no longer has the popularity he commanded among Makindye voters in 2016. Before becoming MP, he had been an elected official in the same area by the same voters who in 2011 made him their Lord Councilor.

Ali Nganda taking the Makindye West MP ticket will leave businessman Faruk Ntege (brother to late Seya) with an egg on the face because he too has been salivating for the same seat-and has been putting plenty of money in NUP activities