Uganda has minerals the US needs – so why is there no trade deal?

Unlike its approach to Rwanda, Kenya, DR Congo, and Tanzania, the United States has not been intentional in pursuing commercial engagement with Uganda.

Different from its neighbours, Uganda is not a direct party to any binding trade agreements with the U.S. and relies on regional arrangements for trade. This commercial anomaly was further aggravated by the announcement of blanket tariffs on all imports on February 20, 2026.

The new 10 per cent levy, which the Trump administration has threatened to raise to 15 per cent, follows the annulment of the reciprocal taxes of April 2025 aimed at curbing decades of U.S. market openness.

Despite Uganda’s trade deficit with the U.S., it is not exempt from these tariffs. Because no binding deal exists, exports continue to be managed through private initiatives rather

than formal, cabinet-level agreements.

Africa Growth Opportunity Act (AGOA), the last trade deal Uganda had with Washington was severed by the Biden administration in 2024. Without a trade deal, Uganda’s coffee, vanilla, and fish exports have no advantage over competitors in the world’s largest market.

The prevailing uncertainty caused by ever-changing tariffs would not insulate Uganda from

shocks, but it would at least see some business in return. Trade Deficit Uganda has a trade deficit with the US, meaning it imports more from the US than it exports to it.

According to the Bank of Uganda, the cumulative deficit over the last ten years stands at $612.18 million. The highest volume of imports was recorded in FY 21/22 ($224.41 million), while the highest volume of exports was recorded in FY 24/25 ($135.49 million).

Uganda’s major exports to the US are: Coffee, tea, vanilla, Fish, spices, cocoa beans, and edible nuts. Main imports are spacecraft, electrical equipment, industrial and mechanical machinery.

No USA/Uganda trade deal

Even though Kitgum district in Uganda holds substantial graphite deposits, urgently needed by the US, the resource remains largely untapped. Identified lithium deposits in Ntungamo, Mubende, Rukungiri, Mukono, and Kanungu districts also remain unexploited.

There is no deal in place to sell these minerals to the largest market in the world. The United States has a standing Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to develop an electric

vehicle battery value chain with the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia.

This agreement covers raw material extraction, processing, manufacturing, and assembly. This model can be replicated in Uganda for minerals that the US deems critical and that Uganda possesses in significant amounts, such as iron ore and graphite. According to foreignassistance.gov, the United States Department of Commerce has no obligations or disbursements to Uganda and has not had any since 2001.

A core role of this department is to advocate for and support business deals with foreign countries. Going by this metric, the US has minimal investment in trade-related cooperation with Uganda and has largely kept the country off its bilateral trade radar for the last 25 years.

Instead, United States keeps Uganda high on its aid recipient list through its donor arms: the World Bank and the Global Fund.

AGOA — Africa Growth Opportunity Act

Enacted in 2000 to provide eligible African countries duty-free access to the US market, the

African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) did little to impact Uganda’s economy. This is

largely because Uganda failed to maintain the quality, volume and consistency to maximize the benefits of the trade deal.

Uganda became ineligible for the arrangement in 2024. According to the United States International Trade Commission (USITC), Uganda’s top US import under AGOA was live plant cuttings classified under agriculture.

The customs value of the plant cuttings from 2001–2022 was $20.52 million. Overall, the World Bank has noted that AGOA is often faulted for benefiting crude oil producers,

with one-quarter of total imports under the arrangement consisting of crude oil.

Non-crude exports are dominated by a handful of countries, and according to the USITC, the top five exporters in AGOA between 2001–2022 accounted for 90 per cent of total non-oil exports.

These are South Africa ($55.9 billion), Nigeria ($11.2 billion), Kenya ($7.3 billion), Lesotho

($6.8 billion) and Madagascar ($3.6 billion). While twenty-two of the eligible countries exported more than $1 million under AGOA, only four exported over $2 billion (with two exceeding $3 billion).

In spite of Uganda’s shortcomings in salvaging the trade deal while it lasted, by design, AGOA has benefited Africa minimally. For context, in 2024 alone, China’s trade with Africa is estimated at $141 billion in exports and $81 billion in imports (General Administration of Customs of China).

US exports to Africa of $32.4 billion and imports of $39.6 billion the same year pale in comparison to China’s. This lopsided comparison highlights that China is the dominant trading partner for Africa, and has been for 16 consecutive years. US trade by comparison remains at a symbolic level.

As the US rightly carries out measures to prop up its economy, it should not disregard the trade potential of Africa. Africa’s minerals, young population, agricultural potential, and investment prospects—if undervalued—could prove to be key in powering the next financial system, to the detriment of the custodians of the current one.

In particular, United States has to show regard for Uganda’s economic sovereignty and policies by engaging with the country individually. A spokesperson for the U.S. State Department says Washington’s trade policy toward Uganda is built on reciprocity, balanced trade, and long-term commercial partnership.

Recent tariffs, the official said, are part of a broader global effort to ensure fairer trade, even as commercial ties between the two countries continue to grow. Uganda, the spokesperson noted, recorded a trade surplus of more than $25 million with the United States in 2024.

That figure rose sharply in 2025, when Ugandan exports to the U.S. increased by 50 per cent year-on-year, pushing the surplus to nearly $80 million. The growth was driven largely by agricultural exports such as coffee, cocoa, and vanilla.