Why Kenya president is walking a tight rope on deputy's ouster bid

Embattled Kenyan Deputy President (DP) Rigathi Gachagua on Thursday made a last-ditch attempt to block an impeachment vote against him in the National Assembly, with more than 10 petitions filed in different courts challenging the process.
Members of Parliament are next Tuesday expected to vote on whether the impeachment motion brought to the House by Mwengi Mutuse, a legislator affiliated to President William Ruto’s governing coalition, should proceed to full trial in the Senate.
The DP faces 11 charges related to alleged economic crimes, abuse of office and gross violations of the Constitution.
Parliament invited the public to give their views on the impeachment motion on Friday, seeking to seal a legal loophole that has seen some Senate decisions to remove county governors from office overturned by the courts.
But Mr Gachagua, in the court petition personally filed by him, argues that his impeachment process is already flawed, questioning the integrity of a public participation exercise conducted on a single day.
He also denies accusations that he and his family members have corruptly amassed wealth within the two years he has served as DP.
The impeachment charges against him, he argues, are politically motivated, alluding to his fallout with President Ruto that has publicly played out in the past five months.
President Ruto has yet to publicly comment on the matter. But he is widely believed to have signalled his troops in Parliament to proceed with the plan to oust his deputy in what is shaping up to be a do-or-die battle between the two leaders.
The repercussions of the impeachment outcome on their future political careers mean that either of them can’t afford to lose.
For Gachagua, being removed from office by impeachment would make him ineligible to hold public office, extinguishing his ambition to succeed President Ruto in the next General Election in 2027 or 2032.
Surviving the ouster bid would, however, mark a major personal victory for the DP, cementing his status as the political king of the populous Mt Kenya region and giving him a strong bargaining platform in future political alliances.
While his critics see him as a polarising figure, Mr Gachagua’s political star has been rising in the region, partly helped by his knack for amplifying grievances over perceived inequitable distribution of public resources.
It is not uncommon for Kenyan politicians to ride a wave of grievance politics to power, with the country’s current president, Ruto, and his predecessor, Uhuru Kenyatta, being notable beneficiaries.
The two leaders won the 2013 election, with Mr Kenyatta as presidential candidate and Dr Ruto his running mate, on the back of a campaign in which they were seen to exploit widespread resentment in their regional political strongholds towards those perceived to have been supportive of the duo’s prosecution at the International Criminal Court (ICC).
They were among six Kenyans who had crimes against humanity charges preferred against them over the 2007-2008 post-election violence, arising from the disputed outcome of the 2007 presidential election. More than 1,100 people were killed and an estimated 650,000 displaced during the violence.
All the ICC cases collapsed for lack of evidence, with Dr Ruto the last to be acquitted in 2016, giving him the peace to prepare for his successful presidential bid in 2022 without charges hanging over his head.
His two years in office have been spent trying to defuse social unrest over high cost of living, stabilise an economy wobbling under the weight of debt and putting out political fires within his governing coalition lit by his renegade deputy.
After months of having to put up with internal rebellion in his government and their United Democratic Alliance (UDA), Dr Ruto would be relieved to see the back of his deputy.
Failing to oust the DP would, however, further weaken the President’s political hand, especially in parts of the country where Mr Gachagua has managed to turn the public debate over his impeachment into a referendum of sorts on Ruto’s popularity.
In the past three months, he has been forced to make political compromises and tweak his economic policies to try to appease an increasingly restless population following the wave of youth-led anti-government protests that hit the country between June and July.