Romania’s GDP up 1.2% y/y in Q3 despite 0.2% q/q decline.

Romania’s GDP increased by 1.6% y/y under the national methodology and 1.2% y/y under the methodology used by Eurostat, according to the flash estimate published by the statistics office INS. This resulted in a Eurostat methodology growth rate of around 1.4% for the first three quarters of the year.

The GDP declined by only 0.2% q/q in Q3, after it had leapt up by over 2% during the previous four quarters.

Q3 readings leave the door open for 1% growth rate in the entire 2025 (Eurostat and national methodology converge for full-year data), but the final quarter is critical for the overall performance.

The VAT was increased in August, which was seen almost immediately in a decrease in consumption in August and September. However, the value added tax is calculated as a contribution to GDP, and any additional revenue can be a growth factor if it does not cause too much correction in consumption, Biziday.ro noted.